BEST PICTURE
The Artist - In the past couple of years I have disagreed with the Academy's Best Picture winner. Don't get me wrong I have predicted the winner correctly every year since I started doing this, but that doesn't mean I always agreed with the Academy's choice. This is one of those exceptions as the Academy will finally award the best picture of the year to the best picture of the year. I remember leaving "The Artist" screening thinking, "this is the year's Best Picture winner" and have openly discussed it ever since. At no point did I consider any other movie, because no other movie really comes close. "The Artist" and "Hugo" share some similarities, both are love letters to the olden days of filmmaking. And that is where the similarities end. One is set in America but made by the French. The other is set in France but made by Americans. "Hugo" is all-star director Martin Scorsese's first attempt at 3D, and he does it quite well. "The Artist", however goes even further. They realize that to take a step forward, you sometimes have to take a step back. If any film can upset, it's "Hugo" but seems very unlikely.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist) - A very simple formula to decide who wins this one, win the DGA, win the Oscar. The DGA, for those that don't know, is the Director's Guild of America. It is a very good indicator at who wins the Best Director statuette at the Academy Awards (failing to match up only 6 times). And since Michel won at the DGA's, then it's a good indication he'll win here. If anyone can upset, it's Scorsese for "Hugo", but again unlikely.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)- What?!? What about Clooney!? What about Pitt?! What about them? I am telling you right now, "The Artist" is a force to be reckoned with. Besides, Dujardin has won this category at all of the major awards ceremonies, including the SAG awards (Screen Actors Guild). Like the DGA, the SAG predicts the Oscars pretty well for Actors. Possible upset?
If it's going to happen, it's going to be Clooney in "The Descendants". But there comes a point in your life where you ask? Is George even acting anymore? I think he's just THAT cool in real life!!
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Viola Davis (The Help)- But Meryl Streep won this award at the Golden Globes? Yeah, that's because the Golden Globes is a load of shit. The only thing good about that ceremony is the food, and the viewers at home can't enjoy that. Davis' breakout performance came in "Doubt" which she received a Best Supporting Actress nomination. And guess how long she was on screen for? 8 minutes. Now THAT'S acting. Upsets? Never forget the power of Meryl Streep. That woman has been nominated more times than most people can count.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)- The really shame here is that Albert Brooks didn't even get nominated for "Drive"?! But anyway, Chris is a shoo-in here. His performance in "Beginners" as a father that comes out of the closet after his wife's death is outstanding. Upsets? No.
SMALL UPDATE: Chris Plummer skipped out on the Academy Nominee Banquet, something seen as taboo apparently. This race just opened up the possibility of a Max von Sydow, unlikely still, but possible. But if last year's race taught us anything, it's that the Academy doesn't really focus on Actor's campaigns as much as they used to. I'm referring to Melissa Leo buying her own "For Your Consideration" ads in the Hollywood trades. That made me publish a last minute blog predicting a win by Hailee Steinfeld. Leo did end up winning which has taught me to stick to my original gut feeling. I'm sticking with Plummer.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Octavia Spencer (The Help)- Don't get me wrong, she was good, but is this performance really oscar worthy? I thought Berenice Bejo did a much better job in "The Artist". Hell, even Melissa McCarthy's role in "Bridesmaids" was more memorable. I don't pick the winners, folks. I just predict them and Octavia Spencer will win. SAG, guys. She won there, she'll win here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen (Midnight In Paris)- Fresh off it's win at the WGA for Original Screneplay, I think it will follow suit here. My previous post is as follows:
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)- Now this and the next category are a little harder to predict since the Writer's Guild have not held their awards yet. I will be sure to update if those results change my mind. Even with the WGA winners announced, this category is perhaps the hardest to predict. I think it really comes down to Woody Allen or Michel, and I believe the Academy will realize how hard it must be to write an entire script with no dialogue. For that reason alone, I give this won to Hazanavicius, but I wouldn't be surprised by a Woody Allen victory (I wouldn't even call it an upset).
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash (The Descendants)- This one I am a little bit more confident on than the previous category. Although, Aaron Sorkin (Moneyball) is one of the best writer's in the game, I think what made "The Descendants" was the story. The dialogue wasn't as snappy or witty as Sorkin, but the story and the character development in 'Descendants' was unmatched by any other movie this past year.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Hugo - This is the category where I stop listing names of the individual people because they're typically multiple people and they all have obscure names and let's be frank, who cares? I go with "Hugo", but honestly "The Artist" or "Midnight in Paris" could just as easily win. This is one of those categories that is just hard unless you really know about set design, which I don't.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Tree of Life- You hear a lot of things about this film, but the one that gets brought up the most is "I love the way it was shot". Spielberg films, in my opinion, have always had some of the best cinematography, and so I would love to give this to "War Horse" but it seems unlikely. It's categories like these that will help you win your Oscar Pool. Pick "The Tree of Life" for the best chance.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Hugo- Period pieces like "Hugo" always take the cake on this one. Oh wait... all of the films nominated in this category are period pieces... what a surprise. You know, I'm not big into Costumes, but I was much more impressed with Harry Potter's Costume pieces than the films nominated in this category. Nothing made me go Whoah!!! Look at that costume! I wouldn't be surprised if "Jane Eyre" walked off with this one either, expect them if "Hugo" doesn't get it.
BEST FILM EDITING
The Artist- Finally another category I know something about!! This is one film that is enhanced by the editing. If it's not an area you care about, you won't notice it, but the slicing on this movie was top-notch. Fincher movies are always very well edited, so a win by "Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" would not be the strangest thing of the night.
BEST MAKEUP
The Iron Lady- You made Meryl Streep look like a slightly younger lady?!? Wow! This wasn't a year of spectacular makeup, to be honest. I'm surprised J.Edgar didn't get a nomination here. Maybe if they stopped spending so much time campaigning for a Best Picture and pulled out some "For Your Consideration: Best Makeup" ads, it would work. If there's an upset it comes from "Albert Nobbs" not "Harry Potter".
BEST SOUND EDITING
Hugo- Why? Because it's Hugo. The bigger the budget, the better the Sound Editor, right? Something like that. One can also make a case for "Transformers". I do recall walking past a "Transformers" showing that was emptying out and two people were discussing, "that was some REALLY good Sound Editing!!" "Yeah, but not as good as the Sound Mixing!!". Which brings me to my next stop.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Hugo- Come on, these categories should really be combined as one. "But they are completely separate things!" Oh yeah? Then why are all of the same movies nominated for both categories, and the film that wins, wins both categories? Also, why are some of the nominated names the same! Let's just call it "Sound Design" and save some Oscar Time.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Rise of the Planet of the Apes- I don't know if Andy Serkis will ever get a much deserved Oscar nomination, but this is the closet he always comes. Best Visual Effects. Anytime he's in a movie, you can expect that movie to win. In this case, he plays the Ape in "Planet of the Apes" and he does one hell of a job, and the effect artists do one hell of a job making him look like a primate. Upset? Transformers or Potter I suppose, but I think "Planet of the Apes" has this one locked.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist- If you don't know by now, The Artist is a silent film and depends heavily on it's score. The score plays such an important role it is one of the few movies you really get into it. Nothing really that special on the other scores here, John Williams is nominated twice which may sound good in theory, but he'll split any vote he gets. "The Artist" isn't foolproof here, but it's a good bet.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man or Muppet" (The Muppets)- Bret McKenzie has written a classic! I would be okay with this entire field being nominated by Muppets songs (there are only two nominees this year!!). Has anyone heard "Real in Rio", the other contender? It's nothing special. "Life's a Happy Song", also from The Muppets, should've been nominated as well.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Rango- The Golden Globes Animated Feature pick, "The Adventures of Tintin" wasn't even nominated here. The Best reviewed animated film of the year, "Arthur Christmas" also got snubbed. "Rango" is good though, so I'm glad the Academy is nominating it. Happy "Cars 2" didn't get nominated. What a huge disappointment from my favorite production company, Pixar. I can't see an upset coming from Puss or Kung Fu, so "Rango" looks pretty solid here without much competition.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Pina- I saw a lot of good documentaries this year, and none of my top choices were nominated. While "Pina" was good, it's hardly the best. "The Bully Project" or "Project: Nim" were superior films, but they didn't get the marketing they needed. If someone pulls an upset, it's "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory", but I really think Pina has this one locked-up.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
A Separation- Few foreign language films also get screenplay nominations. Not a lot of heavy competition in this category. "A Separation" has had lots of success this awards season, and I don't see it ending here.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
La Luna- Just had the pleasure of watching this at the IFC Center in Manhattan. It is a spectacle for the eye. The animation pops out at you, and that's saying something since I didn't see it in 3D. Very nice heart-warming story, would you expect anything less from PIXAR. The rest of my previous post remains the same, and I didn't even change the winner, but now I am more confident in it:
La Luna- Haven't seen it, but it's from PIXAR and they are the best in the biz. I have seen the "Fantastic Flying Books of Morris Lessmore" which I was shocked to find out was not a Pixar Short. Non-Academy members will be able to see La Luna debut in front of this summer's Disney/Pixar flick, "Brave". Expect La Luna, with runner up 'Flying Books'.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Saving Face- This had the biggest "wow" factor and had half the audience crying around the 10-minute mark. This one's not all a sob-story though, it has all of the ingredients a full-length documentary has, just shrunk down to a nice 40 minutes. The rest of the short documentaries are good too, and the one to steal it from "Saving Face" would have to be "Incident in New Baghdad". Here is my previous post, which no longer holds true:
Incident in New Baghdad- Let's be real, now we're just guessing. The only reason I pick this one is because it's the only one I've heard about. Plus it sounds the most compelling out of them all.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Raju- I am pretty impressed that only one of my short film picks changed before I even saw them. My favorite of the Live Actions was "Tuba Atlantic" but I don't see that being picked by The Academy. "Raju" has a much more serious subject matter but is done in a far less serious tone than "Tuba Atlantic". "Time Freak" was hilarious! I highly recommend anybody watch that one. It can be enjoyed by all, whereas some of the other shorts have, shall I say, an acquired taste. My previous post picked "Raju" as well:
Raju- They say the easiest way to get to the Kodak Theater on Oscar night is to make a short film. This isn't exactly true. There are more qualifying Live Action Short Films than any other category. I would hate to be the group that has to narrow it down to five. Why Raju? Why not.
So, stay tuned because the picks might change before Oscar night. But as far now, this is a pretty good idea on how the night should shape out. So tune in February 26 to find out!
No comments:
Post a Comment