Best Picture
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Inception
Winter's Bone
Black Swan
The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
127 Hours
Notably missing are Rabbit Hole, The Town, Another Year, Blue Valentine and How to Train Your Dragon. The Social Network is the movie to beat this year and if any film stands a chance it's The King's Speech. However, it looks like 'Network' holds a solid lead after winning Best Picture from the New York, Los Angeles, Boston, and San Fransisco Critic Circles and the New York Online Critics (NYOC). Winner: The Social Network
Best Actor
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Notably missing is Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) who is considered supporting and Leonardo DiCaprio (Shutter Island not Inception). Like the Best Picture competition, this will come down tooth and nail to The Social Network's Jesse Eisenberg and The King's Speech Colin Firth. Frankly I cannot choose who I like more between these two, and I would like to see them both win. The New York, Los Angeles and San Fransisco Critic Circles awarded Best Actor to Firth whle Boston Critics gave the honor to the young Eisenberg. While this category is still a toss-up, I'll give it to Colin Firth.
Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Hilary Swank (Conviction)
Notably missing is Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine. All the early buzz indicates Annette Bening taking home the gold but don't count out Portman, Kidman, or Lawrence either. Winner: Annette Bening.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Jon Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Notably missing is Andrew Garfield (The Social Network). Anyone who's name isn't Geoffrey Rush shouldn't even bother showing up. He gave a performance of a lifetime as the speech therapist in The King's Speech. If someone pulls an upset expect it to be Christian Bale in The Fighter. Ninety percent of the praise for the movie was over Bale's performance. Winner: Geoffrey Rush.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Melissa Leo (The Figher)
Hailey Steinfeld (True Grit)
If Hailey Steinfeld wins she'll be the third youngest winner in Academy Award history at the age of 14. Unfortunately for Steinfeld, that's one record that won't be set at this telecast. Amy Adams vs. Helena Bonham Carter vs. Melissa Leo. Will the fact two of the three are both in The Fighter make a difference? Probably not, but it doesn't hurt Helena Bonham Carter. While I quite enjoyed Helena's performance, I haven't seen The Figher. I have read rave reviews (say that three times fast) about Melissa Leo's performance so I'll take a leap of faith on her. Winner: Melissa Leo.
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Christopher Nolan (Incpetion)
Notably missing are the Coen Brothers (True Grit) and David O. Russell (The Fighter). Stay tuned for the Director's Guild of America nominations and winner to have a better insight on this category. The DGA has a long history of predicting the Best Director at the Oscar (only six times have they not matched up). It's between Tom Hooper and David Fincher on this one, and I'll give it to Fincher cause The Social Network kicked ass.
Best Documentary
Restrepo
Waiting For Superman
Exit From the Gift Shop
The Tillman Story
Inside Job
A very solid lineup of documentaries, and this is the category I am least positive on, but certainly one of the easier to predict given only fifteen documentaries are eligible. Waiting For Superman seems like too obvious of the choice and Inside Job might be too political for Oscar voters so I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Restrepo.
Best Animated Feature
The Illusionist
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
Hands down the winner is Toy Story 3, but this is overall the best lineup in years. Three excellent films, and the category may be expanded to five depending on the entries, but as of now that's the lineup. Winner: Toy Story 3
Best Original Screenplay
David Speidler (The King's Speech)
Stuart Blumberg & Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)
Mike Leigh (Another Year)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin (Black Swan)
The best part about Kids was the script, but then again The King's Speech was such a dialogue-driven film that it's hard to believe it won't win. My bet: Stuart Blumberg & Lisa Cholodenko (The Kid's Are All Right).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
Ben Affleck, Peter Craig, Aaron Stockard (The Town)
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Daniel Woodrell (Winter's Bone)
Why are we even discussing this? Winner: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Sound and Effects will be divided amongst Inception and Tron: Legacy boasting the finest effects of the season. Cinematography, Costume, Art Direction, Makeup and Foreign Film are a mystery to me right now. Editing should be the only award for 127 Hours the whole night which sucks since it was such an awesome film, a film that wouldn't work without the precision of it's editing. All the shorts (Documentary, Live Action, and Animated) are also up in the air. Original Score may go to Daft Punk for their work on Tron: Legacy if the Academy is feeling unique or they could reward Hans Zimmer with his second statue for his score to Inception. Best Song could go to a song from Tangled, Burlesque, or Randy Newman's song in Toy Story 3. These awards I won't be able to predict until post-nominations in January.
Thanks for reading.
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