Monday, February 28, 2011

And the Oscar goes to...

So before we talk about the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, let's take a moment to look at my predictions:
Best Picture - The King's Speech*
Best Director- David Fincher (The Social Network)
Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)*
Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)*
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)*
Best Supporting Actress- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech*
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network*
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3*
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network*
Best Visual Effects- Inception*
Best Sound Editing- Inception*
Best Sound Mixing- Inception*
Best Costume Design- Alice in Wonderland*
Best Cinematography- True Grit
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Makeup: Barney's Version
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network*
Best Short Film (Animated)- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More*
Best Foreign Language Film- Biutiful
Best Short Film (Live Action)- God of Love*

Let's compare that to my predictions just four days previous:
est Picture - The King's Speech*
Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)*
Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)*
Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)*
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)*
Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)*
Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech*
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network*
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3*
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network*
Best Visual Effects- Inception*
Best Sound Editing- Inception*
Best Sound Mixing- Inception*
Best Costume Design- The King's Speech
Best Cinematography- True Grit
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Makeup: The Wolfman*
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network*
Best Short Film- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More*
Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World*
Best Short Film- God of Love*

*Denotes a Winner.

Notice anything? Had I stuck with my original instincts I would've won. So let's explore the changes I made. For Foreign film I changed from "In A Better World" to the ever popular Javier Bardem feature, "Biuitful". Why? The logic was there, it was a recognizable film (at least among Academy voters) and because it was the only foreign language film that garnered another nomination (for Bardem's acting).

Next, I changed from "The Wolfman" to "Barney's Version", don't ask me why, Roger Ebert had some sound logic at the time.

I changed my Costume Design from "The King's Speech" to "Alice In Wonderland" and that turned out to be a good decision. Bigger is better as far as the Academy is concerned, and 'Alice' certainly had it's share of 'big' costume pieces.

Changing Melissa Leo and Tom Hooper to Hailee Steinfeld and David Fincher were gambles, I admit, but bias got the best of me. Days before Oscar ballots were to be mailed back in Melissa Leo took it upon herself to pay for her own "For Your Consideration..." ads in the Hollywood trade magazines. I truly think that had some Oscar members held onto their ballots until the deadline they would've changed their votes to the young 14-year old Steinfeld ("True Grit"). Alas, I should've stuck to my original advice: Pick the SAG, DGA, and PGA winners. The winner of the Directors Guild Association award was Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech" and yet there was a lot of talk about it being David Fincher's year, so I had a last minute change of heart that risked me another loss on my Oscar ballot.

For 2012, I will be sticking to my own advice. DGA. SGA. PGA. WGA. Follow the guilds, they rarely let you down (They matched up all but one category this year, "Inception's" loss to "The King's Speech" in Best Original Screenplay). If you'll read further down my blog, you'll see a posting titled "POST WGA/ASC Awards Predictions" where I chose "Inception" for Cinematography (which ended up winning) then changed it, and "Inception" for Best Original Screenplay (which ended up losing) then I changed it. So these guilds are not fool-proof but pretty close to it.

So let's talk Oscars. In a year we will have the 84th Annual Oscars (which may have a tentative March date) and I will soon be posting my Year-in-advance pick for Best Picture and so forth. But for now, it is nice to see Colin Firth finally rewarded for his superb acting. "The King's Speech" was the movie to beat and "Inception" swept the technical awards. "The Social Network" took home three while "True Grit" did not win for any of it's ten nominations. Melissa Leo was a train wreck, Christian Bale sounded like he forgot his wife's name, but Natalie Portman was very humble in her acceptance speech. The hosting duo of James Franco and Anne Hathaway turned out to be won of the worst and unfunniest (minus the Intro video) in years. Very talented young actors, just not cut out for the big stage at the Oscars. Bring us back Billy Crystal and then we can finally celebrate like we did before (his cameo was the best part of the night).

Friday, February 25, 2011

I promise, THESE are my FINAL Oscar Predictions.

So I said that the last predictions were my last, but these are TRULEY my last ones. A big change I am making is picking Hailee Steinfeld over Melissa Leo due to her self-made "For Your Consideration..." in the Hollywood Trades. That might seriously hurt her chances. They are as follows:
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director- David Fincher (The Social Network)*
Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)*
Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network
Best Visual Effects- Inception
Best Sound Editing- Inception
Best Sound Mixing- Inception
Best Costume Design- Alice in Wonderland*
Best Cinematography- True Grit
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Makeup: Barney's Version*
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network
Best Short Film (Animated)- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More
Best Foreign Language Film- Biutiful*
Best Short Film (Live Action)- God of Love

*Denotes a Change.

Monday, February 21, 2011

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

So the Academy Awards are less than a week away so I thought I'd give my readers (all two of you) some time to enter your Oscar Pools with my final picks. A few changes include Best Original Screenplay, Best Makeup (omitted from earlier lists) and Best Cinematography.

Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network
Best Visual Effects- Inception
Best Sound Editing- Inception
Best Sound Mixing- Inception
Best Costume Design- The King's Speech
Best Cinematography- True Grit
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network
Best Short Film- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More
Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World
Best Short Film- God of Love

Thursday, February 17, 2011

POST WGA/ASC Awards Predictions

Just TWO changes, for Best Original Screenplay and Best Cinematography.
Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Best Screenplay (Original)- Inception
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network
Best Visual Effects- Inception
Best Sound Editing- Inception
Best Sound Mixing- Inception
Best Costume Design- The King's Speech
Best Cinematography- Inception
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network
Best Short Film- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More
Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World
Best Short Film- God of Love

Right now, Inception and The King's Speech are tied with five a piece. If Inception can pull off the win for Original Score, and believe me it's in a close second, then it will take home the most Gold Men of the night.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Oscar Shakeup (POST-SAG/DGA)

A few months back I said as the Oscars get closer I will have a better grasp on who will win and here you have it. The reason for most of these changes are due to the outcome at the SAG and DGA award ceremonies (very good indicators of who will go on to win the Oscar).

Best Picture - The King's Speech
Best Director- Tom Hooper
Best Actor- Colin Firth
Best Actress- Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo
Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech
Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network
Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3
Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop
Best Editing - The Social Network
Best Visual Effects- Inception
Best Sound Editing- Inception
Best Sound Mixing- Inception
Best Costume Design- The King's Speech
Best Cinematography- True Grit
Best Art Direction- The King's Speech
Best Original Song- Tangled
Best Original Score- The Social Network
Best Short Film- Day and Night
Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More
Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World
Best Short Film- God of Love