"A Dangerous Method"

Yesterday was a Roller Coaster ride, that is for sure. I had been looking forward to that day for weeks, not only because of "A Dangerous Method" but because of the mid-season premiere of "South Park" as well. As everyone in the world now knows (Justin Bieber was the last to find out apparently), Steve Jobs has passed away -- more on that later.

"A Dangerous Method" by David Cronenberg. Sony Pictures Classics. United States Premiere.

The New York Film Festival Gala Screening of "A Dangerous Method" welcomed a packed house last night as it welcomed director David Cronenberg to the stage. He gave a short introduction, brought out a few people and then began the film. 'Method' chronicles the life of Carl Jung (Michael Fassbender), the protege of Austrian neurologist Sigmund Freud (Viggo Mortensen). The topic may be psychoanalysis, but in it's core "A Dangerous Method" is about sex, love and deception. Keira Knightly gives the best performance of her career as Sabina Spielrei, Jung's patient and later his mistress. There are humorous moments throughout, most notably the dinner scene where Carl Jung stacks his plate full of food (it's a "you'd-have-to-see-it" moment). Comic relief, however, is brisk in this brilliantly adapted film. Oscar Buzz for the film has been running rampant since the World Premiere in Venice last month. Expect a slew of nominations for Screenplay, Directing, Best Picture, Costume and possibly set design and score.

The Quiet Before The Storm

I expect the peacefulness to be short lived so we'll take it while we have it. Hurricane Irene is a matter of hours away from hitting NYC head on. It's a very eerie feel in Brooklyn and from what I can tell the rest of New York as well. Reporters have called it a post-9/11 feel with neighbors helping each other out, which I have noticed in my limited time outdoors today. Walgreens is sold out of flashlights and water which seem to be the most sought after item here. No luck at Staples either. An odd mix of stores, but some of the few I have in walking distance. Taxis have switched over to Group Ride Fare-to-fare zones which is cheaper for trips between boroughs. A trip to Bronx would normally cost me 60-70 bucks, but I can get to Yankee stadium for 20 bucks flat on the new system. Tollways are closed to encourage citizens to leave the city, mass transport shut down early today at noon. All flights have been cancelled and all the airports are closed. Amtrak has suspended service. Broadway is giving in and saying "the show must not go on". Dave Matthews who had a three day festival set for this weekend on Governor's Island postponed today and tomorrow's lineups. While I've only lived in this apartment for a couple days, I have had extensive experience in New York and this is a very strange feeling. I am not in an evacuation zone but even those that are are brushing off the hurricane as nothing. It will be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow. I will update soon if I have power.

And the Oscar goes to...

So before we talk about the 83rd Annual Academy Awards, let's take a moment to look at my predictions:

Best Picture - The King's Speech*

Best Director- David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)*

Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)*

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)*

Best Supporting Actress- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech*

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network*

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3*

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network*

Best Visual Effects- Inception*

Best Sound Editing- Inception*

Best Sound Mixing- Inception*

Best Costume Design- Alice in Wonderland*

Best Cinematography- True Grit

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Makeup: Barney's Version

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network*

Best Short Film (Animated)- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More*

Best Foreign Language Film- Biutiful

Best Short Film (Live Action)- God of Love*

Let's compare that to my predictions just four days previous:

est Picture - The King's Speech*

Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)*

Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)*

Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)*

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)*

Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)*

Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech*

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network*

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3*

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network*

Best Visual Effects- Inception*

Best Sound Editing- Inception*

Best Sound Mixing- Inception*

Best Costume Design- The King's Speech

Best Cinematography- True Grit

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Makeup: The Wolfman*

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network*

Best Short Film- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More*

Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World*

Best Short Film- God of Love*

*Denotes a Winner.

Notice anything? Had I stuck with my original instincts I would've won. So let's explore the changes I made. For Foreign film I changed from "In A Better World" to the ever popular Javier Bardem feature, "Biuitful". Why? The logic was there, it was a recognizable film (at least among Academy voters) and because it was the only foreign language film that garnered another nomination (for Bardem's acting).

Next, I changed from "The Wolfman" to "Barney's Version", don't ask me why, Roger Ebert had some sound logic at the time.

I changed my Costume Design from "The King's Speech" to "Alice In Wonderland" and that turned out to be a good decision. Bigger is better as far as the Academy is concerned, and 'Alice' certainly had it's share of 'big' costume pieces.

Changing Melissa Leo and Tom Hooper to Hailee Steinfeld and David Fincher were gambles, I admit, but bias got the best of me. Days before Oscar ballots were to be mailed back in Melissa Leo took it upon herself to pay for her own "For Your Consideration..." ads in the Hollywood trade magazines. I truly think that had some Oscar members held onto their ballots until the deadline they would've changed their votes to the young 14-year old Steinfeld ("True Grit"). Alas, I should've stuck to my original advice: Pick the SAG, DGA, and PGA winners. The winner of the Directors Guild Association award was Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech" and yet there was a lot of talk about it being David Fincher's year, so I had a last minute change of heart that risked me another loss on my Oscar ballot.

For 2012, I will be sticking to my own advice. DGA. SGA. PGA. WGA. Follow the guilds, they rarely let you down (They matched up all but one category this year, "Inception's" loss to "The King's Speech" in Best Original Screenplay). If you'll read further down my blog, you'll see a posting titled "POST WGA/ASC Awards Predictions" where I chose "Inception" for Cinematography (which ended up winning) then changed it, and "Inception" for Best Original Screenplay (which ended up losing) then I changed it. So these guilds are not fool-proof but pretty close to it.

So let's talk Oscars. In a year we will have the 84th Annual Oscars (which may have a tentative March date) and I will soon be posting my Year-in-advance pick for Best Picture and so forth. But for now, it is nice to see Colin Firth finally rewarded for his superb acting. "The King's Speech" was the movie to beat and "Inception" swept the technical awards. "The Social Network" took home three while "True Grit" did not win for any of it's ten nominations. Melissa Leo was a train wreck, Christian Bale sounded like he forgot his wife's name, but Natalie Portman was very humble in her acceptance speech. The hosting duo of James Franco and Anne Hathaway turned out to be won of the worst and unfunniest (minus the Intro video) in years. Very talented young actors, just not cut out for the big stage at the Oscars. Bring us back Billy Crystal and then we can finally celebrate like we did before (his cameo was the best part of the night).

I promise, THESE are my FINAL Oscar Predictions.

So I said that the last predictions were my last, but these are TRULEY my last ones. A big change I am making is picking Hailee Steinfeld over Melissa Leo due to her self-made "For Your Consideration..." in the Hollywood Trades. That might seriously hurt her chances. They are as follows:

Best Picture - The King's Speech

Best Director- David Fincher (The Social Network)*

Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress- Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)*

Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network

Best Visual Effects- Inception

Best Sound Editing- Inception

Best Sound Mixing- Inception

Best Costume Design- Alice in Wonderland*

Best Cinematography- True Grit

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Makeup: Barney's Version*

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network

Best Short Film (Animated)- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More

Best Foreign Language Film- Biutiful*

Best Short Film (Live Action)- God of Love

*Denotes a Change.

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS

So the Academy Awards are less than a week away so I thought I'd give my readers (all two of you) some time to enter your Oscar Pools with my final picks. A few changes include Best Original Screenplay, Best Makeup (omitted from earlier lists) and Best Cinematography.

Best Picture - The King's Speech

Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network

Best Visual Effects- Inception

Best Sound Editing- Inception

Best Sound Mixing- Inception

Best Costume Design- The King's Speech

Best Cinematography- True Grit

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Makeup: The Wolfman

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network

Best Short Film- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More

Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World

Best Short Film- God of Love

POST WGA/ASC Awards Predictions

Just TWO changes, for Best Original Screenplay and Best Cinematography.

Best Picture - The King's Speech

Best Director- Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)

Best Actor- Colin Firth (The King's Speech)

Best Actress- Natalie Portman (Black Swan)

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter)

Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo (The Fighter)

Best Screenplay (Original)- Inception

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network

Best Visual Effects- Inception

Best Sound Editing- Inception

Best Sound Mixing- Inception

Best Costume Design- The King's Speech

Best Cinematography- Inception

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network

Best Short Film- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More

Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World

Best Short Film- God of Love

Right now, Inception and The King's Speech are tied with five a piece. If Inception can pull off the win for Original Score, and believe me it's in a close second, then it will take home the most Gold Men of the night.

Oscar Shakeup (POST-SAG/DGA)

A few months back I said as the Oscars get closer I will have a better grasp on who will win and here you have it. The reason for most of these changes are due to the outcome at the SAG and DGA award ceremonies (very good indicators of who will go on to win the Oscar).

Best Picture - The King's Speech

Best Director- Tom Hooper

Best Actor- Colin Firth

Best Actress- Natalie Portman

Best Supporting Actor- Christian Bale

Best Supporting Actress- Melissa Leo

Best Screenplay (Original)- The King's Speech

Best Screenplay (Adapted)- The Social Network

Best Animated Feature- Toy Story 3

Best Documentary- Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Editing - The Social Network

Best Visual Effects- Inception

Best Sound Editing- Inception

Best Sound Mixing- Inception

Best Costume Design- The King's Speech

Best Cinematography- True Grit

Best Art Direction- The King's Speech

Best Original Song- Tangled

Best Original Score- The Social Network

Best Short Film- Day and Night

Best Short Film (Documentary)- Strangers No More

Best Foreign Language Film- In a Better World

Best Short Film- God of Love

Let's talk Oscars...

So the nominations were released this morning and The King's Speech leads the pact with twelve nominations. The PGA awards were held over the weekend with 'Speech' taking home the Best Picture awards which makes me rethink picking The Social Network as my Best Picture prediction. While the PGA award isn't as good of a indictor as the DGA, WGA, or SAG, it still picks the Oscar winner 60% of the time. With that said, the Producers Guild of America (PGA) is made up of Producers, that's it. The voters of the Best Picture category include every member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, from writers to editors. I will monitor the oscar buzz for both films and keep my avid readers informed on the status. As of now I am still predicting a win for The Social Network but The King's Speech is certainly in a close second. Furthermore, I picked the ten nominations for Best Picture correctly and went 16 for 20 in the Acting categories, 8 for 10 in screenplay, perfect in animation, 3 for 5 in documentary (my predicted winner didn't make the cut), and 3 for 5 in direction.

Post Golden Globe Predictions

I've seen Christian Bale ("The Fighter") gain a lot of ground on Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech") and am now changing my prediction for Best Supporting Actor to Christian Bale. Also I am changing my documentary prediction for now to "Waiting For Superman".

PGA Nominations

The Producer Guild of America nominations have been released and they matched all of my Oscar nom predictions with the exception of Winter's Bone which was excluded by the PGA, who opted for The Town instead. Both fine films, and in my opinion the PGA made the right decision (just one I didn't think they'd do). Whether or not the Academy voters will follow suit, is unclear. The PGA is a very reliable means of predicting Oscar nominations and winners, with three-quarters of their nominations matching up since the start of the PGA awards. Of those three-quarter matchups, 14 of the PGA's 21 Best Picture winners have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture (including last year's The Hurt Locker).

The awards are on January 25th, and it's looking very good for The Social Network to come out on top.